摘要：Social security serves as a crucial mechanism for income redistribution and significantly shapes rural residents' consumption patterns. Using panel data from 31 Chinese provinces (2000-2021), this study employs fixed-effects and threshold models to examine how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) affects rural consumption, with a particular focus on the dual role of social security. Key findings reveal the following: (1) EPU stimulates essential consumption but suppresses discretionary consumption among rural residents; (2) social security levels significantly mediate the EPU-consumption relationship; and (3) threshold analysis reveals nonlinear dynamics-the positive marginal effect of EPU on consumption progressively diminishes as social security levels increase. These findings advance the theoretical understanding of EPU transmission mechanisms while providing policymakers with evidence to optimize social security systems to stabilize rural household consumption.

关键词：Economic policy uncertainty; Rural consumption; Social security; Threshold analysis

DOI：10.1057/s41599-025-04955-0

原文刊载于：HUMANITIES & SOCIAL SCIENCES COMMUNICATIONS ，MAY 10 2025

WOS链接： https://webofscience.clarivate.cn/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:001487956900003